Lifecycles

December 8, 2009 by davidwlocke

A lifecycle can seem like a series of projections: birth, growth, peak growth, slowed growth, even slower, slowest, death. Products go through this. The technologies underlying those products go through this.

A lifecycle is a stochastic process. It can be a Bayesian process, or it can be a Markovian process. The process can be imposed and enforced, or learned. A Bayesian process enforces a previously established process. A Markovian process discovers new states in a process in an ongoing manner.

Grammars can be prescriptive, or descriptive. Prescriptive grammars tell you the correct way to do things. Descriptive grammars capture use or novelty. A grammar usually does both, or it fades away. If English didn’t exhibit novelty we would be speaking a different language.

Bayesian processes are prescriptive. Markovian processes are descriptive.

Lifecycles, like the English language, will exhibit novelty, so it is both Bayesian and Markovian. Lifecycles are grammars.

Beyond a grammar or a process, a lifecyle is a network. It used to be that networks were considered to consist of nodes and links. Recently, hubs were added to the definition of networks, so now networks consist of hubs, nodes, and links. Hubs are central nodes that have many more links than hubs. Hubs are stable. Nodes change often. Links used to be considered to be associative by theorists, but fixed in implementation. Even XSLT has yet to facilitate richer linking. Mathematicians see links as being random. In biochemistry, randomness facilitates links, but containers structure the space of the linking improving the probability of a link, so containers play a role.

Lifecycles and its process states act as containers, structuring the networks associated with a product. These networks associated with products include feature networks, user and customer populations and subpopulations, concept or ontology networks, and content networks. Some of this is malleable, some of it is stable. Some of it will be hubs. Some of it will be links. Some of this will be predictable; some volatile. Knowing which is which is key.

Lifecycles are clocks as well, asynchronous clocks. So beyond knowing which network components are stable and which are volatile, knowing when a state will change, when the clock will tick is the other key.

The lifecycle becomes the geography over which you will build your technology platform plan and product roadmap. Your populations will be distributed over that geography. The populations define the lifecycle, or the lifecycle defines the populations–you decide. But, statistical aggregates will muddy your populations.

Can you describe your product’s lifecycle? Can you validate that description?

Making Space

September 16, 2009 by davidwlocke

One of the questions that came up during the Lead to Align webinar was what to do when a product manager inherits a team that exhibits stereotypical IT behaviors. See https://cc.readytalk.com/partlogin/fzwn4712by5i on stereotypical behavior.

I answered the question in regards to the lead to align paradigm: knowing your people, designing the path to alignment, ensuring a win-win. But, later, I realized that there was one more thing a leader does. They make space.

To illustrate what I mean by making space, I have a story to tell that demonstrates what making space means. At a startup, I worked across the cubical partition from the Scrum leader for the team writing plug-ins. I didn’t work for him. When those of us on my side of the partition were carrying on a conversation, he would come around the partition. He could have just stood up and talked over the partition, but he came around the partition, got in the middle of us, and our conversation. He had the social skills I had not seen in any of my managers before him. He was, in fact leading.

The company was evil. But, I would have followed this guy anywhere. He made for a better workplace. He made a space entirely different from that of the evil company. He made space.

The space he created originated from his leadership. His team followed. His followers lived in the space he created. Leaders do that.

In every hierarchy, each branch is not just a path, but a place, a space. The manager of that branch at a given layer in the organization drives the character of that space. If that manager manages through fear, then people will run away from it. If the manager makes a safe place where staff are enabled and able to focus on their efforts and contributions, then people will flock to that space and contribute more.

In a company where people exhibit those stereotypical behaviors, building the space and keeping the negativity at bay requires a leader, so leading to align points the way. When a new manager arrives, that manager gets a short period in which to make an impact on the work lives of the led. That manager has a period of time in which to teach the staff how to work with them, a period of time to earn their respect and trust, a period of time to get to know the people, and to create that safe, comfortable space.

Affirming works. Enabling works. Aligning works. Relating works. Turning them into heroes, addressing concerns and issues, and taking them at face value, rather than holding them accountable to their past behaviors. You are new here, so conversely, they are new, to you, as well.

Turning them into heroes was something I was directed to do, when as a functional unit manager, I wanted to fire them. Yes, it happened.

How do you define the worker and boss roles? I define the worker’s role as making the boss into a hero. I define the bosses role as one of enabling them to turn the boss into a hero. The boss has to turn this inside out and make the worker a hero, if that worker is to find a way to contribute positively and stay on the job.

It’s not easy to turn a worker around or a workplace, but the product manager’s success depends on it. Make the effort. Do the hard work of being a leader. Don’t be a default leader. Don’t settle for anything less than being the leader.

I hope you enjoyed the webinar. I’ll post a link when I get it.

I realize that being the leader depends on your organization, on the way your organization defined the job, on the degree to which your CEO has distanced himself from the product. Still, you have the tools to turn the situation around, to prevent the situation from arising in the first place, to make your people heroes, and enabling them to make you into a hero as well.

Lead to align.

Leave a comment. Tell me what you think. Thanks!

Roadtrip: ProductCamp Seattle 09, Update 02

September 2, 2009 by davidwlocke

The roadtrip is on, definite.

I got a comment on the presentation topic survey asking me to make it more understandable. As it is it’s more a list of keywords. What is needed is something more along the lines of “How….” So I’m revising the survey. It turns out that it is very difficult to revise a survey. So I’m creating a completely new one. It seems that creating the survey in a word processor and pasting the text into the survey is the way to go.It will be a day or two before the survey is revised.

Thanks to all the people who responded to the first survey, and retweeted the link to the survey.

I’ve been told to use four slides, and to encourage audience participation. I haven’t been to a ProductCamp yet, so I’m left wondering about how the presentations are done. If you’ve done one, give me your hints. As it is I’m looking for a Toastmasters chapter in San Antonio where I can get some presentation time in before the ProductCamp. I’d prefer the toastmaster chapter to be business oriented, rather than general.

It strikes me that it is probably cheaper to fly than drive, but for me the roadtrip is about seeing places I’ve never seen, meeting people I’ve never met, and having some fun.

The ProductCamp will be an opportunity do what I’ve done many times before, turn online posters into real people, real friends.

Roadtrip: ProductCamp Seattle 09, Update

August 31, 2009 by davidwlocke

As PCS09 sneaks up on all of us, I’m much more certain than I was when I wrote the first post on the roadtrip. Certainty will arrive in the next five days. I’ve decided that I want to arrive on Wednesday.

As a result I will leave in the pre-dawn hours on Monday. I’ve settled on the Junction to Balinger route. That can change if someone in Austin wants a ride. Let me know early.

Route will involve 12 tanks of gas, hopefully, at a winter gasoline price. Planning on getting a room somewhere in Montana. But, that was for the quick trip. I may go much slower so I can stop at a few parks along the way.

Not going to rush, but I do need to be there all day on Thursday and Friday, so I can meet some of the twitter friends.

I missed PCA09 this year. PCS09 will be my first product camp.

As ProductCamp Minneapolis comes together, I’m thinking that I’ll be making that trip as well. I’ve made that trip before, on the 4th of July. The fireworks northbound through Nebraska from Salina, Kansas (I35 to US 81) is not to be missed, hours and hours of them. In each town, fireworks are to be had on the town square until 1 am, so from dusk to long into night, fireworks up ahead, behind, east, west. Had a heat thunderstorm, it’s lightening, and a sunset sinking below those clouds all competing for attention.

Presentation: ProductCamp Seattle 09

August 31, 2009 by davidwlocke

I’m starting work on a presentation that I’d like to present at ProductCamp Seattle 09 in October.

I created this survey, http://bit.ly/VP5fY, to help me narrow the topics I could cover in the presentation. Please let me know what you would be interested in hearing by taking the survey. Thanks.

Roadtrip ProductCamp Seattle 09

July 30, 2009 by davidwlocke

I committed to going to the Seattle Product Camp 09 on October 10th while I still lived in LA. I made that roadtrip a few months ago. I do not want to drive the southern Oregon stretch of I-5 at night ever again.

Having relocated to San Antonio, Texas eliminates the necessity of driving that stretch of interstate. It presents me with an opportunity to see Wyoming and Montana. I’ve driven the stretch to Denver on top of several trips to Santa Fe when I found the fast way from Austin (10.5 hrs) via Muleshoe.

The gas estimate would be 16 fills via LA and Seattle via I-5. Plug in a safety factor, so I’m up to twenty fills. So the budget is up to $800 without food or sleep. That makes the trip contingent. I won be able to firm up the trip until sometime after August 23rd baring some other wonderful surprise.

I’ll miss the Austin Product Camp, because that happens to be the day my son gets married over in East Texas.

I have two seats that could be filled along the way.

I know, it would be cheaper to fly. But, I’m not one to miss an opportunity to roadtrip.

See the map.

Roadtrip to ProductCamp Seattle 09

Roadtrip to ProductCamp Seattle 09

Notes from the Middle of the Night

July 29, 2009 by davidwlocke

I woke up at 4:00 am, so I picked up my moleskine and sketched out a stream of thumbnails starting with scope as a force, and ending with the firm as a morpheme.

Knowledge Management

I’ll omit scope as a force, and move on to some knowledge management ideas. Learning is said to be a four stage process: unconscious unknowing, conscious unknowing (fear), conscious knowing, and unconscious knowing (flow). Learning can be summarized as implicit to explicit to implicit. Back in AI class, explication moved implicit knowledge to explict knowledge. Explication was the goal. But knowledge management orients itself towards the value of knowledge.

Explicit knowledge has value, but it becomes commoditized. This makes explication a process of moving knowledge towards commoditization. The intial explication leads to another explication endlessly towards ground via subsequent explications.

Implicit knowledge has value without explication. We exchange it. We embed it. We use it unconsciously. We can even capture it without explicating it. And, in the learning process, moving the explicit back to the implicit, or forgetting, takes an effort characterized by an attention shift where we focus on other things. In academia, professors must keep moving. The hot problems change, so they shift their focus to the next hot thing. Research in requirements elicitation came to a standstill by the mid-90s. Things were forgotten, or just never made it into the textbooks.

Ultimately, the cycles of implicit to explict extends endlessly bumping into an S-curve where it fades from attention.

Knowledge cycles: explications, re-implication, implication

Knowledge cycles: explications, re-implication, implication

As a state diagram, the situation generates a surprise!

State diagram summarizing the knowledge cycles.

State diagram summarizing the knowledge cycles.

Ignoring the labels, what we have is a flip-flop. We have memory. That memory constitutes the mechanism of asymmetry in all things. The adoption of technology is asymmetric and memory based. Poisson games describes the populations adopting a technology as a series of Poisson distributions. Moore’s technology adoption lifecycle can be translated into a series of Poisson distributions. Moore asserted a normal distribution. Adoption is also characterized as a polynomial that Fourier translated into frequencies.

Adoption in different representations

Adoption in different representations

Weak Signals

Discontinuous or radical innovations occur in small populations where they reach a critical mass and move into larger populations. Adoption of such an innovation is an asymmetrical process. The adopters constitute the memory of the process. The initial adoptions constitute weak signals. They look like noise at some scale. Eventually, they no longer look like noise.

Weak Signals

Weak Signal

Packing Factor

This morning on Twitter there were a few tweets about how a lot of middle market customers were preferable to a few large customers. There was also a tweet to a YouTube presentation about determining the number of M&Ms in a jar based on the packing factor of the contents. Oddly enough, there I was hours before I got online drawing a figure about packing.

The way I stacked that second and subsequent layers of sales events hints at a packing factor. Playgrounds use a variety of surfaces intended to reduce impacts of falls and jumps. It turns out that pebbles make for a very soft surface, because there is so much air around each pebble. Compression forces some of that air out of the way. The air around each pebble is a matter of its packing factor.

Sales Packing Factors

Sales Packing Factors

An organization has a certain capacity for lead generation and sales close processes. These capacities generate a packing factor. Mid-sized firms tend to be more alike where a Fortune 200 market will scale over a range of company sizes in terms of seats and budget dollars. The yellow in the figure represents the gaps in revenues from the sales. You might want to think of the yellow areas as continuity risks.

Actors in Sale

Sales packed into a signal timeline have an internal structure. In a small company, you sell to one manager without purchasing or multiple stakeholders complicating the deal. In a large company, there are many players. In a small company, the buyer might be the user. In a large company, the economic buyer is distant from the users. These considerations define a collection of personas beyond the user and buyer.

Actors in Sale

Actors in Sale

The actors in the sale can be represented as vectors. As a collection of vectors, the representation would look like a morpheme. Linguistics has been applied to the genome and proteins. I could be applied to the organizational structure of a firm.

Representations provide implementation options when we code. Representations provide management options when we manage. Enjoy.

What do you think? Leave a comment.


Cultures in Our Markets

April 27, 2009 by davidwlocke

A comment on my last blog post, woke me up to the difference between developing within a culture, and developing from outside a culture. It took email exchanges and tweets to further develop that idea. I’ll show you what I mean in this article. And, thanks to Greg Yankelovich, who tweets as piplzchoice, for that comment.

To make sense of the within and outsider notions of culture, we need a way to visualize a culture. I’m focused on culture as containers of meaning, and hence practice, the stuff of software use.

Philosophers conceived of meaning as “The Ontology,” as if there were only one central structure of meaning. AI researchers have taken on ontologies as agent communications vocabularies. Information architects differentiate ontologies from taxonomies as well. Ontologies are about concepts. Taxonomies are about things. A thing’s place in a taxonomy is based on the decisions used to classify the thing, the taxons. Similarly, A concept’s place in an ontology are based on its definitional differences that philosophers called sortables, and that I’ve come to call ontons. You end up with decision trees. I call the leaves of these decision trees infons. I will say that this vocabulary is not mine. I found it on some Perot Systems or EDS website eons ago.

So to visualize an ontology, we will use a decision tree.

Visualizing Culture

Visualizing Culture

In the figure we start with (1) the usual decision tree, a binary tree. (2) Shows a more abstract representation of the usual decision tree. (3) Moves the binary tree to a multiple branched decision tree, which leaves us with a cone. (4) Shows how a culture contains subcultures that contains subcultures.

The rightmost diagram (4) encodes a cultural terrain. This is the key visualization we need to begin mapping out the cultures within a corporation.

You have the corporate culture, the priority culture among the functional cultures that compete for the “market leading” cultural position. You might find yourself working in an engineering culture, a sales culture, an accounting culture–I hope not, or a marketing culture. That will depend on tradition and the CEO. The corporate culture would provide the shell in any representation. The corporate culture would contain the management culture, and the numerous functional cultures.

The functional cultures may contain specialist subcultures. IT would be a functional culture. Engineering might be a separate functional culture even if it is staffed with IT people. The goals and reporting structure would separate IT from Dev. Your technical writers would have their own functional subculture, since as a population they share meanings, goals, tools, practices, and processes. Their distribution into development teams wouldn’t alter their functional culture. The same goes for the developers, QA people, marketers, and whoever else may be on your team or report to you. Such is culture in a matrix. Consider the culture of your team to be your responsibility, yes, a human, soft-side management responsibility is yours.

Then, you have your boss and his boss and his boss–the line management structure organized within the management culture of your company.

But, let’s skip from where we work to where we sell, to our customer’s organizations. They look similar to your organization in terms of their cultural terrain. Your product has stakeholders all over their cultural terrain. Marketing and sales deals with all of them, and in the late market, where offer expansion is key to success against the fast following, price competitors, you will deal with all of them as well.

My prior post and last week’s discussion on the #aopmtweet chat was about how requirement elicitatin could be improved by focusing our market populations on the cultures that we usually ignore and crosscut. The above visualization provides some hints to the boundaries that statistical aggreation ignores.

Moore’s technology adoption lifecycle also hints at functional culture as a segmentation mechanism. It shows up in how one would bring a discontinuous technology to market. Moore tells us to start with a custom application. Adding stage gatting to Moore’s model, we can use the client’s vertical as our statistically aggregated population and verify the number of seats and the number of dollars available in that market. An important distinction in these custom applications is that they are products. We should already have our technology.

Our technology is the realization of our idea. We coded to our own specification. Software engineering emerged from engineers and computer scientists who coded for themselves, so they coded within the specifying culture, which enabled them to get away with ignoring culture. They didn’t have executive stakeholders or requirements volatitlity to deal with, and neither do technology developing companies. Culture intrudes when you go to market. That’s when you find yourself and your team coding from its culture for those in another culture. They are coding products.

Now, when we start a custom application gig, we might not yet have our technology platform, so we will have to develop it, as we develop the custom application. If you can, separate the technology platform from the custom application. Separate the container from the contained, the automation from the automated, the channel from the message. Deal with the bifurcated development processes: one based on engineering for engineers, another based on engineering for functional practitioners. You’ll need two teams and two different elicitation processes. One will focus on the technology platform. The other will focus on the customer application riding on top of the technology platform. Build the custom application to the last release of the technology platform, to the last API, rather than the latest API.

So we have started down the Moore’s technology adoption lifecycle (TALC), which consists of sequentially organized, risk orientation-based markets. The TALC is shown in the next figure.

TALC with each market's culture count annotated

TALC with each market's culture count annotated

Starting at the left, you release your technology platform to your technical enthusiasts, or geeks. You provide free betas, because they will not pay for code. They will debug it for you. They will figure out what it can be used for. They will advocate it to their IT bosses and corporate management in terms of interesting applications that solve real problems in their workplace. They help you find the early adopters that will pay for custom application development. You code for people in the same culture as yourself, when you code for the technical enthusiasts.

To make money, you need to find a paying client. You do this in the next market, the early adopter market. These people are business executives that run an organization that will be functionally oriented, or possibly line oriented. Here you will code for people unlike yourselves. You will code from your culture for use in other cultures.

In the diagram, the custom application market is divided into eight different sections that represent the eight custom apps you will need in the bowling ally, or vertical markets.

Once your client’s period of exclusion expires, you can sell that custom application to other companies in the client’s vertical. The market would actually be a particular spot in the vertical, but it would be the same one occupied by the client’s company. The programming situation is still coding in one culture for use in another. The meaning problem persists here.

Once you leave the bowling ally or vertical markets, you once again sell to the IT market, a horizontal market. You move back to programming from one culture for use by the same culture.

Then, you move into the post-tornado, price-based, fast follower competition, or red ocean, situation. This may occur before your entry into the late market. From here on, until you consume the late market, you will code for both IT and functional users, so you will need the culture facing capabilities you might have abandoned as you exited the verticals. One red ocean strategy is mass customization, which has you focusing on functional unit meaning in the various industries that comprised your vertical markets, as well as moving up and down the industry stack or tree that constituted the vertical market. Lots of cultural boundaries need to be observed here.

We need an eliciation process that is sensitive to the functional cultures that comprise our markets. We need to understand and acknowledge the cultural boundaries in our development and marketing processes. We need to move away from aggregated populations that scramble meaning and lead to increased use costs by our customers. The survival of our industry depends on the latter.

Even where we code for our own engineering culture, we do not code for people like ourselves, otherwise, they would code the application themselves, rather than download and compile, or pursue funding by their management. They use an API when it is easier to learn that roll themselves. So even within the engineering or development culture there are subcultures. We need to be aware of these as well.

Let me know what you think. Comments help a lot. Leave a comment! And, for those of you using a feedreader, email your comments to Dave44000@yahoo.com, and I’ll post them here. Thanks!

The Waterfall Infrastructure Behind Agile

April 25, 2009 by davidwlocke

During last Thursday’s Twitter #aopm, Anthropology of Product Management, chat, we discussed how functional cultures would provide better requirements than statistical aggregation. Later that night, it came to me that requirements elicitation and basing it on statistically aggregated populations was so waterfall!

So I wrote down the following list  of waterfall vs. Agile enabling notions:

Waterfall/Agile
Requirements/User Stories
Releases/Iterations
Delayed Value Delivery/Frequent, Incremental Value Delivery
Statistical Aggregation/Functional Cultures
Mass Population/Niche Populations
Nash Games/Poisson Games
Complete Information/Adoption
Fixed Population/Population Uncertainty
Normal Distribution/Poisson Distribution
Bayesian Processes/Markov Processes
Gaussian Processes/Hidden Markov Nodes
Closed/Open

The items to the left represent the waterfall way. Those on the right a potential agile way.

We talk about user stories, but at the same time we talk about requirements. Well, which is it going to be: waterfall or agile? Clearly, requirements came from software engineering and exist to support the waterfall.

Releases, sure, don’t get me wrong. Agile still delivers a release, but iterations matter. In Feature Driven Design (FDD), an Agile method, you ask how many iterations it will take to release a single unit of minimal marketable functionality. This means that Agile delivers more often. When we move from the waterfall to Agile, we release more often.

A release is where we ship value to the customer. This regardless of whether we are doing the waterfall or agile, but with agile we ship value to the customer more often. Agile reduces our client’s problems with paying for the incremental value delivered. They pay in smaller chunks of money for small chunks of code. They also learn less after the install, so they get more use out of the code. They become productive sooner. We get feedback sooner. The waterfall delays value delivery.

We code for a client or more likely a customer, assumed to represent, the entire customer base. Coding for clients is a necessity for radical/discontinuous innovation. Most of us code sustaining/continuous applicaitons. The customer for the waterfall is someone we’ve never seen. The customer for agile is physical in the sense that it may be the product manager, but its still imaginary, because the product manager has a constructed an aggregate user in their minds. In both cases, the waterfall and agile, the customer is an aggregate of many users going so far as to create the mythical integration app user who negotiated away their meaning. These aggregates are meaningless. Software applications augment thought, or that’s that theory. As such, software applications should be meaningful, which implies that the application respects the meanings of its various users. Meaning is orgranized and defined by a culture. Users are practitioners in a particular functional domain, hence a functional culture. These cultures segment populations into smaller chunks. Functionality for such chunks would be more meaningful, more stable, less risky, unaggregated, and more addressible in the marketing sense. Functional culture is the natural target for Agile.

The statistical aggregation underlying the waterfall addresses a massed population. We use statistics to tell us about that population, but in some self fulfilling way we defined and created the population first, and only afterwards analyzed that population. Sure the regression fits. The error is small. But, the population is still mytical. Agile and functional culture would naturally address a niche population well defined by others, rather than by us. Statistical analysis of a niche population will provide better insight, than the same analysis on a massed waterfall population. Niche populations also define Moore’s custom application engagements and subsequent verticals in the bowling ally with Moore being focused on radical/discontinuous innovation.

For the waterfall to work, you need stable requirements, and a stable population from which to derive those requirements. The division between economic buyer, represented by the executive sponsor, and the users from various functional units further enhanced the myth of a mass population and the existence of a single integration vocabulary. The mythic nature of the mass population and integration vocabulary was clearly demonstrated by requirements volatility. Requirements volatility does not arise from the users changing what they do. It originates in the politics of the executive sponsor’s decision in the face of the political maneuvering of the functional units, who are motivated to protect their meanings and practices.

Agile doesn’t work better in regards to requirements volatility until it addresses a real user from a culturally determined niche population. Agile belongs to the real user, the real population, and their meanings.

In game theory, we learn the Nash game and its equalibriums. Somewhere in there the notion of complete information is mentioned, and quickly forgotten. We do x, they do y, our outcome is s, their outcome is t. But, is it true that we know what their strategic response is going to be? No. So the Nash game is mythic, instructional, but unreal and unreliable. A Poisson game, a game of population uncertainty is a better fit if you consider a population of strategies, or markets subject to adoption of their underlying category. A Nash game has a fixed population of strategies. A Nash game is built on a normal/Bayesian/Gaussian distribution. A Poisson game is built on a collection of successive Poisson distributions, which is a natural representation of Moore’s technology adoption lifecycle. Markets are Poisson.

In parametric statistics, a Normal distribution can be transformed into a Poisson distribution, and vice versa. A warning however is needed here, statistical inferences made on the transformed variates are error prone.

Processes can also be categorized by the same classification scheme I used on the distributions on games. Bayesian/Gaussian processes use all prior probabilities to determine the next state in the process. Markov process use only the information in the current state to determine the next state. Markov processes are bassed on Poisson distributions. So the waterfall is Bayesian/Gaussian, and Agile is Poisson. Again, Moore’s technology adoption lifecycle is a Markov/Poisson process, which fits Agile.

Taking a machine learning perspective, early research into artificial neurons led to hidden Markov nodes as a means of creating a fusion network of switches and weights that could learn. Hidden Markov nodes also discover things that they found on their own without regards of the intentions of the researchers. These days Gaussian processes are used rather than Hidden Markov nodes because the Gaussian approach is easeir. But, for this ease, you have to trade off discovery. Gaussian learning does not discover new aspects. Hidden Markov nodes reflect Agile; Gaussian, the Waterfall.

The Waterfall is closed to the new. Agile is open to the new. Yes, we can do change control on the waterfall and get to the new, but is it the natural outcomes of quicker releases, an interation focus, real users, less aggregation, and meaning rather than math?

We are still being dragged down by the infrastructure that supported Agile. Think about it.

Leave a comment. Thanks.

Economic Indifference, Part III

March 25, 2009 by davidwlocke

Val Workman’s response to Monday’s post on this subject was

That Economic Indifference is the sum of product management activities is an unsupported premise

The tweet stream mentioned how P&L would come to constrain product management. Agilists feel that product management constrains them. There is a lesson in these claims. That lesson is what I’ve been exploring with these last three posts.

I could talk about how models or abstractions leave details out. Or, how metrics and their roll ups amount to one big model-view-controller, or a chain of model-view-controllers. But, that would be just another near theoretical discussion. So let’s get real for a moment. Economic indifference is a theory, as well, so I’ll happily take this down to the dirt.

On day in April, years ago, something short of two weeks from my next annual vesting–no I wasn’t the product manager back then, but I did work for some great product managers back then–we were all called to a company-wide meeting. Once we were all in the room, they let us know what it was all about.

“The trading window has been closed.” Maybe they didn’t say this, because it was already closed, since we were close to the end of the quarter anyway. I’ll just remember it this way, not wanting to talk about the technicalities.

“We missed the quarter!” If this has happened to a company you’ve worked for, well then you’ve met economic indifference personally, so it isn’t theorectical anymore.

“There will be an analyst call at 1 pm this afternoon. The details will be in an email we’ll send out after the meeting.”

There must have been some talk about staying positive, and staying on board, but no excuses were made, and no explanations offered.

So you get that email, close your office door, and dial in. The analyst call was exactly the same, and no explanation was given either. They told the analysts exactly what they told you. They asked the analysts to wait for the quarterly, so they had more time to analyze what happened.

This happened after the dot bust had started, but the dot bust wasn’t the cause.

At any rate, the bit representing the answer to the question “Did you miss your quarterly estimate?” It went from no to yes. That one bit, summed up all the efforts of everyone in the company. That one bit changed the world.

When the world was told about the impending analyst call, the institutional traders and their automation dumped the stock as fast as they could. After the call, those analysts downgraded their rating from a Buy to a Hold, as a minimum. Most of the analysts downgraded us to a Sell. Once they did this, the retail market had gotten the word.

Say whatever you want, but an organization’s performance as an safe place to put and multiply money is summed up in that one little bit, the answer to a single simple question. An investor never asks, “hey, do they have product managers?”

We know that we have much to do as a product manager, but at the end of the quarter, our P&L is our grade, our few little bits that answer a few little questions. If we miss our objective, it rolls up to corporate, and the financial markets will have their bits for their questions. Excuses will be made, but no truth will be told. It isn’t about truth. It isn’t about narrative. It isn’t about effort. It’s about missing the quarter. It’s about that one little bit.

Hopefully, you’re not a one product company, but even so, you share that ultimate roll up with your peers, all the other managers, and your superiors. In the end, everyone in the company contributes, and everyone is rewarded, or not.

But, if economic indifference was just a way to get graded, I wouldn’t have written anything about it. It’s really the means by which we do much to ensure success of our endeavours. And, it is the means by which we enable those who contribute to our success, because they do much, as well, that we are never asked about. It’s about the degrees of freedom that the roll up grants us, and the degrees of freedom that our team’s roll ups grants them.

It’s really about how we are driven, and how we drive.